About Sovereignty

Brunei and Singapore celebrated 40 years of currency interchangeability by releasing new $20 notes with a same back - scenes from Singapore and Brunei, but with different fronts - Brunei $20 with their sultan, and Singapore $20 with Yusof Ishak.

At the press conference, Brunei described the notes as signifying that the countries were two sovereign nations on one side, and the close cooperation we had on the other. One comment left on the ST online was that this currency interchangeability meant that Singapore was vulnerable to the manipulations of Brunei. For example. North Korea is believed to be counterfeiting US currency. Our arrangement with Brunei would open us to the same risks.

However, that is only a possibility and not a probability, and the comment was alarmist at best and I don't think anyone took it seriously. However, what is interesting was mention of sovereignty by the Brunei leader, and the confidence that this 40 year cooperation should continue. Actually, if either country should be worried, it should be Brunei, as they have the natural resources to back their currency, but Singapore's backing is based on years of building up the reserves. In the early years, they probably had a greater risk that Singapore would just print money, and flood Brunei with "cheap" Singapore dollars. Even now, Brunei with less than 1/10th of Singapore's population probably have more reason to feel threatened but does not.

Both countries deal with each other with mutual respect as sovereign nations. There is no question that this arrangement would threaten the sovereignty of either.

In contrast, Malaysia feels their sovereignty is threatened all the time, whether it's the water issue, the causeway/bridge issue, our land reclamation programme, or our investment (or consultation) in the Iskandar Development Region.

Indonesia also feels necessary to raise the issue of their sovereignty over the Defence Cooperation Agreement which was tied to the Extradition pact. Now they want to amend the DCA because they feel their sovereignty is being threatened.

Thailand also felt necessary to raise the "Singapore boogeyman" with their concerns over the security of their mobile phone communications because of the Singapore ownership of one of their telco. The coup general has since admitted that it was a strategy to rally support of the the Thai people.

I thought it interesting that Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, all vastly bigger countries with larger population than Singapore would worry that a small island state of 4m people could threatened their sovereignty, while Brunei, one of the smaller countries in the world (tho still larger than Singapore) with a population less than 1/10th of Singapore is not.

Of course, it's arguable whether a currency interchangeability agreement is more threatening than any of the other issues. Probably not.

The worst investment ever!

Let's say you heard of a job opening up. It's contract work. 4 years. Pays $100,000 per year. Would you spend $10m to try to win that job?

Shift now to the US Presidential election campaign. The job is a four year term. It pays $400,000 a year. The two leading Democratic candidates are expected to raise and spend $500m each to win the presidency (ST 9 May 2007, "Cash fuels the race for the White House").

There are things not upfront in the picture.

Pipeline is a go

M'sia's PM has announced the $11b northern pipeline to shortcut travel through the Straits of Malacca is on. And this guy's not prone to saying one thing and doing another. Competition for Singapore is on!

But I thought I read somewhere that it takes 3 days to offload a supertanker (VLCC) and just 2 days to go down the straits. Well, it's an option.

So Mahathir ends the little truce and comes out swinging.

He warns Abdullah not to let his son-in-law become PM because as a democratic country Malaysia should oppose any attempt to create a political dynasty. "In our country," he's reported to have said, "anyone can be the PM. Even the fisherman." But not the son-in-law of the PM. Or a homosexual.

And he accused Abdullah of being intolerant.

"Hello, Kettle? This is Pot. You're Black."

So who was it that persecuted his DPM with charges of homosexuality and kick him out of the political party just because the DPM didn't agree with him?

Sorry, that should have been: "Hello, Snow? This is Pot. You're Black!"

He was also reported to have said:
"We should quickly renegotiate the water deals so we can raise the price of raw water we sell to Singapore." That way Malaysia will have more incentive to sell water to Singapore and Johor won't get flooded. So ya, it's Singapore's fault that Johor flooded. Because we didn't buy more water. Instead we make our own water!

Newater, new sand.
So when Malaysia cut off our water supply, we came up with New Water.

Now that Indonesia has cut off our sand supply, what? New Sand? Are we going to be shitting bricks? It's also called night soil, right?

Behind the scenes after the soccer match...
So as the Malaysian Referee walks into the tunnel, he is met by Thaksin who shakes his hands and hands him a briefcase full of cash. Then as he walks further down, he meets Mahathir, who takes a cut. Then Mahathir walks out the tunnel to the waiting Thai players and shares the payoff with them.

What does it all mean?

There is a Singaporean Fantasy Wish. It goes something like this:

Indonesia should just let us buy Batam. We can then build it up and solve our land scarcity problems, and all the related problems.

That is of course the simplistic view. It would solve some problems, but present others of course. But that's not relevant here.

Malaysia has unveiled a US$105b plan to develop southern Johor, and create a free access zone where Visitors from Singapore can live and work (and even retire).

This is a very clever solution to the problem of competition. Instead of competing, the KL govt has made an interesting unilateral move to allow cooperation, and spillover economic development and benefits. Think about it.

1. The two ports in Johor can better serve as support bases. Goods can enter by Singapore ports and be transferred to Johor ports for onward delivery. The disadvantage of Johor ports lacking connectivity is partially solved.
   
2. Land and homes prices in southern Johor will rise as Singaporeans consider living there and working in Singapore. Or even moving their business there.
   
3. Bridal saloons offering wedding packages to Singaporeans will see even more business. Singapore-based companies may move there.
4. Nursing homes there can have Singaporean clients and not need to send them back once a month to renew the visa. (Yes, you can leave your parents there and forget about them).
   

Of course there will be issues to resolve. It is still not going to be as convenient as staying in Singapore. The causeway may eventually need to be widen or (gasp!) be replaced by a bridge to cater for the increase in traffic. A rail system integrated with the MRT line would be very good. A third link in the east might even be needed (and linked to the NE line perhaps?)

Concerns that Singaporeans have would include crime, but there are plans to address that. Another concern is stability. With the current administration, all is fine and dandy. Cooperation is the order of the day. And we can be assured that the Free Access Zone will allow us free access.

But if nationalistic fervour erupts, if ground sentiments about rising prices, and being priced out of Southern Johor grow, if overzealous Islamic police make midnight visits to homes and rouse the "visitors from Singapore" and rallying calls for "bumiputra" (sons of the earth) destabilises the situation, there would be a lot of loss and heartache. The Malaysian foreign minister gives one pause. He blows with the wind. Under MM (Mahathir Mohd), he was stridently anti-Singapore. But with the current PM, he's all niceness and fairness. I guess he knows which side his bread is buttered.

Over time some of the competiveness will narrow. Prices in Johor will increase as wages and land costs increase (because Singaporeans always spoil the market). :-)

But never mind. For now it is a good thing. And I applaud Malaysia for their astute leaders.

Of course Mahathir will just have a field day criticising this plan. Maybe they'll shut him up if they tell him it is the grand plan to build his bridge. But of course he may choose to see it as the "kowtowing" PM selling Malaysia piece by piece to Singapore.

Oh on a side issue, Anwar says he pities Mahathir. That must really sting Dr M. :)

We need to bridge our difference

The news reported recently that more and more Singaporeans are spending their golden years in nursing homes in Johor, Malaysia. The advantage are it's cheaper than Singapore's nursing homes but the quality of care is just as good. One downside is that every month the residents have to make the trip back to Singapore, stay overnight, then go back cos the visa is only for 30 days.

Hell, there's a bargaining chip for Malaysia. They'll give special visa for these nursing home residents if Singapore will agree to the bridge. Think of the savings Singapore get from not needing to build all the wheelchair ramps and lifts for the elderly. On the downside, those old folks that could look forward to a trip home at least once a month, now will be forgotten by their families for months at a time.

Hell, here's another idea! If Singapore agrees to the bridge, the old folks in Johor's nursing home will get a special express lane to return to Singapore every month so they don't have to queue in jam.

But no. Malaysia has created "passport-free zones" in Johor where visitors from Singapore will be exempt from immigration and custom clearance (STI 3rd Nov). The new regulation will not limit the stay. Sounds like the Malaysian authorities are making it easy for nursing homes to cater to Singaporeans. Nice of them. No mention was made of the Bridge in exchange for this unilateral move on their part to "promote tourism."

I wonder if our Airforce planes can also visit briefly, without passport of course, whenever they take off from Tengah?

Of course this also sets up the interesting situation of visitors requiring to pass through Malaysian Customs and Immigration while still in Singapore at Tanjong Pagar railway station, but not needing a passport while in Southern Johor.

Married couples may want to bring their marriage certs tho, in case the Islamic Police come knocking on your door at 2.00 am accusing you of Khalwat (happened to a nice retired American Christian couple on Langkawi in Oct 06.)